Tigray forces launch offensive against Ethiopian government
Ethiopian army chief Berhanu Jula alleges that weapons shipments are moving through Massawa to support TPLF forces, escalating regional accusations. Heavy fighting previously occurred between government forces and the TPLF in Chila, located in Tigray's Central Zone. Meanwhile, online influencers are pushing for an Ethiopian invasion of neighboring Eritrea to secure access to the sea following recent government successes. Regional tensions continue to mount as military accusations intensify between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray forces.
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- ✓ Ethiopian army chief Berhanu Jula alleges that weapons shipments are moving through Massawa to support TPLF forces, escalating regional accusations.
- ✓ Heavy fighting previously occurred between government forces and the TPLF in Chila, located in Tigray's Central Zone.
- ✓ Meanwhile, online influencers are pushing for an Ethiopian invasion of neighboring Eritrea to secure access to the sea following recent government successes.
What changed
Army chief Berhanu Jula formally alleged that weapons shipments and foreign support are reaching TPLF forces via Massawa.
Live updates
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Ethiopian Military Alleges Foreign Arms Shipments to TPLF
Ethiopian army chief Berhanu Jula alleges that weapons shipments are moving through Massawa to support TPLF forces, escalating regional accusations. Heavy fighting previously occurred between government forces and the TPLF in Chila, located in Tigray's Central Zone. Meanwhile, online influencers are pushing for an Ethiopian invasion of neighboring Eritrea to secure access to the sea following recent government successes. Regional tensions continue to mount as military accusations intensify between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray forces.
Why it matters
The resurgence of armed conflict follows the collapse of the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, threatening a wider regional crisis across the Horn of Africa. Online campaigns advocating for an invasion of Eritrea risk compounding instability as military officials trade accusations regarding foreign arms supplies.
Still unconfirmed
- Ethiopian army chief Berhanu Jula alleges weapons shipments are moving through Massawa and foreign support is backing TPLF forces.
- Online Ethiopian influencers are pushing for the government to invade Eritrea to seize access to the sea.
- Heavy fighting erupted between Ethiopian government forces and the TPLF in Chila in Tigray's Central Zone on October 25.
- Ethiopia has announced the delivery of 12 Su-35 fighters and plans to acquire S-400 systems.
What to watch next
- Any official military confirmation of foreign weapons entering through Massawa
- Government responses to online influencer campaigns advocating for an invasion of Eritrea
- Further ground engagements in Tigray's Central Zone
confidence 50%Sources used for this update (5)
- kulu-media.com — Ethiopia Eritrea TPLF Accusations Escalate | Kulu Media
- jen.jiji.com — October 30 strike, transport at risk despite requisition: disruptions for trains, buses, metro and local public transport
- www.thegatewaypundit.com — Ethiopia at War: Rebel Alliances, Regional Rivalries and the Battle for Tigray * The Gateway Pundit * by Antonio Graceffo
- sg.news.yahoo.com — 'Now or Never': Ethiopia influencers push for Eritrea invasion - Yahoo News Singapore
- www.theyeshivaworld.com — RUSSIAN ARMS: Ethiopia Announces Delivery Of 12 Su-35 Fighters, Plans S-400 Acquisition
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Tigray Forces Expand Attacks as Conflict Escalates
Tigray forces have escalated fighting against the Ethiopian government by launching attacks on government sites in the Afar and Amhara regions while seizing airfields within Tigray. A rebel commander vowed to continue fighting after government-allied forces seized the Tigray capital, contradicting calls for disarmament. Meanwhile, a recent drone strike in northern Tigray resulted in four deaths, including two children. The violence follows the collapse of the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, as regional tensions threaten to ignite a broader conflict across the Horn of Africa.
Why it matters
Tensions in northern Tigray intensified after Tigrayan authorities accused the federal government of preparing for war and declared the November 2022 peace agreement dead. The resumption of full-scale hostilities draws in neighboring regions like Afar and Amhara while raising the risk of a wider regional war. Meanwhile, geopolitical friction between Eritrea and Ethiopia adds further instability to the Horn of Africa.
What is confirmed
- Fighting broke out in Ethiopia's Tigray region between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
- Tigray forces attacked government sites in Afar and Amhara and seized airfields in Tigray.
- A rebel commander pledged to continue fighting government-allied forces who seized the Tigray capital.
- Four people, including two children, were killed in a drone strike in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region.
Still unconfirmed
- The Tigray regional government stated that its fighters are engaged in a defensive war against federal forces.
- Tigray's leadership declared that the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement had collapsed after accusing the federal government of preparing for war.
What to watch next
- Whether federal forces can recapture the seized airfields in Tigray and repel attacks in Afar and Amhara
- Potential military involvement or retaliation from neighboring Eritrea
- Further civilian casualties and the humanitarian impact of ongoing drone strikes in central Tigray
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (8)
- ethiopia.liveuamap.com — Reuters: Tigray forces attack government sites in Afar and Amhara, seize airfields in Tigray - Reuters reports. Tigray regional government statement: Our fighters are e…
- warontherocks.com — Fighting in Ethiopia and the Risk of Regional Spillover
- shabait.com — Contrasting Eritrea’s Sovereign Foreign Policy with Ethiopia’s Expansionism in the Horn of Africa – Eritrea Ministry Of Info....
- kulu-media.com — Fighting Reported in Northwestern Tigray as Federal Forces Retake Nirak
- www.aljazeera.com — Tigray rebels urged to disarm as commander vows to fight ...
- jamestown.org — Standoff in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Could Ignite Regional War
- thepeninsulaqatar.com — Four killed in drone strike in Ethiopia's Tigray region, residents say | The Peninsula Qatar
- foreignpolicy.com — They Fled Ethiopia’s War. Now, Israel May Send Them Back.
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Tigray Forces Launch Counteroffensive and Retake Towns
Tigray fighters have launched a counteroffensive against Ethiopian government forces in central Tigray. TPLF-aligned fighters and the Tigray Defense Forces claim to have recaptured Abiy Adi and two other towns from the federal army. This counteroffensive follows earlier federal gains and the appointment of an interim administration that promised elections within six months. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned Eritrea of severe consequences over alleged support for rebels, while residents in Adigrat welcomed the recent departure of Eritrean troops following federal drone strikes.
Why it matters
The resurgence of fighting threatens the fragile stability that the federal government attempted to establish through an interim administration in northern Tigray. Accusations regarding Eritrean involvement complicate diplomatic efforts and regional security. The conflict has previously drawn in disparate armed groups and prompted international calls for de-escalation from the United States.
What is confirmed
- Tigray forces launched a counteroffensive against Ethiopian government forces in central Tigray.
- Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned Eritrea of severe consequences if it continues to support rebels.
- Burnt-out trucks remain in Adigrat following federal drone strikes against Eritrean troops who were present a week prior.
- A government-appointed mayor in Tigray stated that elections will be held within six months.
Still unconfirmed
- TPLF-aligned fighters and the Tigray Defense Forces claimed the recapture of Abiy Adi and two other towns.
What to watch next
- Further territorial control shifts in central Tigray
- Eritrean government responses to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's warning
- Preparation and timeline for the announced regional elections
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (6)
- www.yahoo.com — Yahoo
- kulu-media.com — TPLF-Aligned Tigray Fighters Claim Recapture of Abiy Adi and Two Other Towns
- www.rfi.fr — Ethiopia PM warns Eritrea of 'severe consequences' if supports enemies - RFI
- africancl.com — Tigray Rebels Launch Counteroffensive in Ethiopia and ...
- www.enca.com — After Ethiopia fighting, new Tigray mayor vows elections in 6 months - eNCA
- www.thestandard.com.hk — In Tigray, Ethiopians welcome the departure of Eritrean troops - The Standard
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Ethiopian PM Appoints Interim Tigray Administration
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appointed an interim administration in northern Tigray to restore stability and prepare for elections within six months. Meanwhile, Ethiopian forces have expanded control over key towns in northwestern and central Tigray. The region previously formed an uneasy alliance with disparate armed groups and moved closer to Eritrea amid mutual allegations. Eritrea has denied troop movements inside northern Ethiopia, while the United States called for de-escalation.
Why it matters
The appointment follows recent advances by Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters into northern Tigray after the withdrawal of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Renewed combat stems from unresolved issues tied to the Pretoria Agreement, compounding suffering for vulnerable civilians as church leaders amplify peace calls. Tensions have also escalated between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
What is confirmed
- Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appointed an interim administration in the northern Tigray region to restore stability and pave the way for elections within six months.
- Eritrea denied troop movement inside northern Ethiopia as the United States called for de-escalation.
- Tigray formed an uneasy alliance with disparate armed groups in late September and moved closer to Eritrea amid mutual allegations.
Still unconfirmed
- A militia claims Eritrean losses in northern Ethiopia.
What to watch next
- Whether the newly appointed interim Tigray government can successfully organize elections within six months
- Developments regarding the alleged troop movements and relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (8)
- www.france24.com — France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and...
- www.csmonitor.com — How soaring bond yields pressure big economies like the US, France - CSMonitor.com
- www.aljazeera.com — Ethiopian forces expand control in Tigray as militia claims ...
- shabait.com — Information Note Regarding Eritrea-Ethiopia Relations
- www.citizen.co.za — Ethiopia appoints interim Tigray government | The Citizen
- www.thetablet.co.uk — ‘Peace does not mean ignoring injustice’ says bishop in war-torn Ethiopia - The Tablet
- newsaf.cgtn.com — Ethiopia PM names interim Tigray government, eyes polls in six months - CGTN
- www.eepa.be — Situation report: ENDF controls key towns in northwestern and central Tigray; Shipwreck off of Djibouti coast; Gold refinery launc....
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Ethiopian Forces Push into Tigray Amid Clashes
Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters are advancing into northern Tigray, taking towns like Adwa and Adigrat following the withdrawal of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Ethiopian Airlines resumed flights to Mekelle after government-allied units retook the regional capital. Meanwhile, a former Tigray leader advising the prime minister promised visible changes in the region. The renewed combat stems from unresolved issues tied to the Pretoria Agreement, compounding suffering for vulnerable civilians as church leaders amplify peace calls.
Why it matters
The renewed war shatters the previous alignment between Ethiopia and Eritrea, dragging the former allies onto opposing sides of a deepening regional crisis. Allegations of Eritrean troop incursions and subsequent Ethiopian drone strikes heighten the risk of a wider territorial war. Outside observers note that the instability threatens the fragile peace established after earlier conflicts in the region.
What is confirmed
- Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters entered Tigray's Adwa without resistance as TPLF fighters withdrew.
- Ethiopian Airlines resumed flights to Mekelle on Sunday for the first time since rebels seized the airport on Sept. 23.
- Rebels led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front withdrew from Mekelle on Oct. 3.
Still unconfirmed
- Eritrean forces have invaded Ethiopian territory.
- Tigray rebel groups are forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15.
What to watch next
- Confirmation of full federal control over Adigrat and border areas.
- Official diplomatic responses from regional bodies regarding Eritrean troop incursions.
- Evidence of civilian displacement and humanitarian access in newly retaken Tigray towns.
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (14)
- www.aljazeera.com — Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera
- www.alestiklal.net — How Clashes Are Escalating in Tigray and the Conflict Is ...
- www.theguardian.com — Tigray rebel groups ‘forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15 ...
- www.theguardian.com — Ethiopia launches drone attack against Eritrean troops who ...
- www.yahoo.com — Ethiopia, Eritrea ramp up rhetoric: Are they inching towards war?
- globalpost.com — Stories Archive - GlobalPost
- www.osvnews.com — Church leaders in Ethiopia amplify papal call for peace, as new war breaks out in Tigray - OSV News
- ground.news — Ethiopian official promises change in Tigray after troops ...
- newscentraltv.com — Ethiopian Forces Enter Key Tigray Town
- en.topwar.ru — Conflict in Africa escalates as Eritrean forces invade Ethiopia - Military Review
- thesoufancenter.org — Outside Powers Respond to Instability in the Red Sea
- kulu-media.com — Ethiopian Federal Forces Enter Adigrat in Tigray | Kulu Media
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Ethiopia and Eritrea Sever Ties Amid Tigray Rebel Offensive
Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties as an escalating rebel offensive grips northern Ethiopia. Pro-government militias captured a major airport near Mekelle from rebel fighters, and Addis Ababa forces recaptured a key town. This renewed fighting breaks previous alliances, putting Ethiopia and Eritrea on opposing sides after they fought together during the previous Tigray war. Regional leaders have gathered in Egypt to address the risk of a wider conflict, while pro-government Tigray peace forces state they intend to turn the page on the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
Why it matters
The current escalation threatens to return the country to the devastating civil war of 2020 to 2022. Because Ethiopia and Eritrea were previously aligned, the rupture in their diplomatic relations significantly alters alliances across the Horn of Africa and pushes the Red Sea region toward a broader war.
What is confirmed
- Ethiopia and Eritrea have cut diplomatic ties amid a new rebel offensive in northern Ethiopia.
- Pro-government militias claimed they captured a major airport near the Tigrayan capital from rebels.
- Addis Ababa forces have recaptured a key town.
Still unconfirmed
- A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would draw in regional powers.
What to watch next
- Further military developments in northern Ethiopia and the outcome of regional talks in Egypt
- Actions taken by regional powers regarding the Ethiopia-Eritrea diplomatic split
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (5)
- www.rfi.fr — Ethiopia's new rebel war redraws alliances across the Horn of Africa - RFI
- www.bbc.com — Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties as Tigray conflict escalates
- www.france24.com — Ethiopia Tigray rebels pushed back as regional tensions spike
- foreignpolicy.com — Can Regional Powers Prevent Ethiopia’s Conflict From Spreading? - Can Regional Powers Prevent It From S....
- www.middleeasteye.net — How the Red Sea came to the brink of a new regional war
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Ethiopian Forces Retake Tigray Capital
Ethiopian federal forces and pro-government Tigray peace forces have seized full control of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, following a major setback for the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The opposition alliance launched an offensive against the military on September 23, sparking fears that the country would return to the devastating civil war of 2020 to 2022. As government troops advance and secure strategic positions, regional leaders have gathered in Egypt to address the risk of a wider conflict and regional spillover. Meanwhile, the Tigray peace forces state they intend to turn the page on the TPLF.
Why it matters
The capture of Mekelle reverses a rebel advance that threatened to shatter the fragile stability of northern Ethiopia. The renewal of hostilities prompted immediate diplomatic alarms across the region, pulling in neighboring states with historically tense relations with Addis Ababa. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, with additional support from Sudan and Egypt, though all three nations deny the allegations.
What is confirmed
- Ethiopian federal forces and pro-government militia regained control of Mekelle, the Tigray regional capital.
- The Tigray People's Liberation Front launched attacks against federal forces on September 23.
- The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea scheduled a meeting in the Egyptian city of Alamein to discuss the conflict.
- Four African leaders issued a joint declaration calling for talks to end the civil war in Sudan.
Still unconfirmed
- Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of directly supporting the Tigray rebels.
What to watch next
- Outcomes and formal communiques from the regional leaders meeting in Alamein
- Further military positioning by the Tigray peace forces and federal troops inside the Tigray region
- Official responses from Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt regarding Ethiopia's accusations of rebel backing
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (8)
- www.rfi.fr — Ethiopia captures Tigray capital as its regional rivals meet in Egypt - RFI
- www.aljazeera.com — Four African leaders issue joint declaration as Ethiopia war ...
- www.rfi.fr — Ethiopia controls Tigray capital as regional rivals meet in Egypt - RFI
- ubc.go.ug — Ethiopia controls Tigray capital as regional rivals meet in Egypt - Uganda Broadcasting Corporation
- www.cnbcafrica.com — Government forces seize capital of Ethiopia’s Tigray region from rebels | CNBC Africa
- www.jpost.com — Ethiopian government retakes capital of Tigray region as fight against rebels continues
- www.timeslive.co.za — Ethiopian government forces seize Tigray capital from rebels - TimesLIVE
- www.africanews.com — Ethiopia: Federal forces advance in Tigray [Africanews Today]
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Ethiopian Forces Retake Tigray Capital and Airport
Ethiopian federal troops and allied militias have regained control of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, and captured its airport. The military advance reverses a rebel takeover by the Tigray People's Liberation Front and its allies, dealing a severe setback to the opposition alliance. According to the Ethiopian National Defense Forces and analysts Yale Ford, Michael DeAngelo, and Liam Karr, the military launched a three-pronged counteroffensive after repelling initial rebel advances in the northern Afar region. Regional leaders are meeting in Egypt to address the potential escalation and regional spillover.
Why it matters
The fighting shatters the 2022 Pretoria peace accord that ended a devastating civil war between federal forces and the TPLF. Renewed hostilities flared after the TPLF joined the Alliance for Survival in September 2026 with the goal of overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The conflict risks destabilizing the wider Horn of Africa as regional rivals and neighboring states react to the renewed violence.
What is confirmed
- Ethiopian government forces and allied militias regained control of Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region.
- Federal forces recaptured the main airport in Mekelle.
- The Ethiopian military launched a counteroffensive consisting of three different lines of advance toward Mekelle.
- The TPLF joined the seven-group Alliance for Survival in September 2026.
Still unconfirmed
- Eritrea allegedly provided financial backing to the Alliance for Survival.
What to watch next
- Whether the TPLF and its allies can regroup outside Mekelle or launch counterattacks against federal supply lines.
- The outcome of regional leader meetings in Egypt regarding the conflict escalation.
- Further movements by Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army.
confidence 95%Sources used for this update (7)
- www.cfr.org — Latest News – Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker
- www.criticalthreats.org — Ethiopian Counteroffensive into Tigray; Internal Tensions ...
- www.france24.com — Ethiopia's Tigray rebels abandon regional capital Mekelle as pro-government forces advance - France 24
- www.thestar.com.my — Government forces seize capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region from rebels | The Star
- www.thestar.com.my — Pro-government forces say they retake airport in Ethiopia's Tigray region | The Star
- www.dw.com — In Tigray, Ethiopian government forces have advanced against ...
- www.arabnews.com — Arab News | Ethiopia controls Tigray capital as regional ...
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Tigray Forces Push Offensive in Northern Ethiopia
Renewed warfare in northern Ethiopia escalates sharply as Tigrayan forces push into neighboring regions following the formation of a new opposition coalition. The Tigray People's Liberation Front launched an offensive against federal troops, shattering a four-year-old peace accord and driving intense combat across the Afar and Amhara territories. The violence has displaced an estimated 150,000 people in Afar alone and damaged critical infrastructure, including a drone strike on Tigray TV in Mekelle. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have backed the Ethiopian government as regional tensions mount.
Why it matters
The offensive threatens the Djibouti corridor, the vital trade route handling almost all of Ethiopia's international commerce, giving rebel forces potential leverage over Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Seven armed groups have united against the federal administration, bringing former enemies into the same coalition. Meanwhile, the army chief has accused Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken the state.
What is confirmed
- Forces from the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray launched a major offensive against the federal government on Wednesday.
- Tigrayan rebels seized control of airports in the Tigray region and targeted government positions in the Afar and Amhara regions.
- The TPLF advanced toward Afdeera after taking Erebti, with at least 150,000 people feared displaced in Afar alone.
- Qatar and the UAE back the Ethiopian government as fighting spreads beyond Tigray.
- A drone attack damaged Tigray TV in Mekelle amid renewed fighting.
Still unconfirmed
- Reports indicate hundreds of people have been killed in the full-blown war between Tigray rebels and the federal government.
- Ethiopia's army chief accused Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia.
What to watch next
- Developments regarding the security of the Djibouti trade corridor and federal counter-offensives
- Further military moves by the seven-group coalition against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government
- The status of foreign nationals and stranded tourists in northern Ethiopia
confidence 90%Sources used for this update (28)
- www.theguardian.com — Rebel offensive against Ethiopian army stokes fears of return to civil war
- www.eurasiareview.com — The UAE And The Horn Of Africa’s Perfect Storm – Analysis
- www.bbc.com — Ethiopia fighting: Are Tigray's TPLF forces and the army heading back to war?
- www.cnbcafrica.com — Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian government has begun, as fighting erupts | CNBC Africa
- www.straitstimes.com — Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian government has begun, as fighting erupts
- www.omanobserver.om — Tigrayans say new war with Ethiopian govt has begun - Oman Observer
- www.cnn.com — War has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray — and former enemies are now fighting together. What changed?
- www.aljazeera.com — Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war | Conflict News
- www.winnmediaskn.com — Tigray forces launch offensive against Ethiopian government | WINNFM 98.9
- www.aljazeera.com — Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights to three northern Tigray airports | Conflict News
- www.euronews.com — Tigray rebels push into Afar as Ethiopia blames neighbours
- www.jpost.com — Some 20 Israelis trapped in northern Ethiopia as combat in country intensifies - report
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Tigray forces launch offensive and seize Mekelle airport
Tigrayan leaders state that a new war with the Ethiopian government has begun as active fighting erupts in the region. Local forces have seized control of the airport in the Tigray capital of Mekelle, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to three northern airports in the territory. Residents confirmed the airport seizure to the BBC, while the TPLF moved on critical sites after heading a new alliance. The outbreak marks a severe escalation in tensions and halts routine air transit to the northern region.
Why it matters
This development signals a dangerous return to hostilities between regional Tigrayan authorities and federal Ethiopian forces. Aviation disruptions cut off vital transport links to the provincial capital and surrounding areas. Observers and analysts track the TPLF movement toward critical sites following the formation of a new alliance.
What is confirmed
- Tigrayan leaders state that a new war with the Ethiopian government has begun as fighting erupts.
- Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to three northern Tigray airports.
- Local forces seized Ethiopia's Mekelle airport in Tigray.
Still unconfirmed
- The TPLF moved on critical sites after heading a new alliance.
What to watch next
- Re-establishment of federal control over the Mekelle airport
- Official statements from the Ethiopian government regarding the offensive
- Further flight resumption updates from Ethiopian Airlines
confidence 100%Sources used for this update (5)
- Reuters — Tigrayan leaders say new war with Ethiopian government has begun, as fighting erupts
- Al Jazeera — Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights to three northern Tigray airports
- apnews.com — Ethiopian Airlines cancels flights to Tigray capital as soldiers take over airport
- BBC — Ethiopia's Mekelle airport in Tigray seized by local forces, residents tell the BBC.
- ACLED — Ethiopia Conflict Alert: The TPLF Move On Critical Sites After Heading a New Alliance. A new phase of the next war?
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