Why Putin Is Fighting On, Even as His Problems Multiply

Live updates

1. 17d ago

   Putin Plans Escalation and New Offensives as Diplomatic Talks Stall

   Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine following a diplomatic deadlock. Ukrainian intelligence and military officials report that Russia is planning new ground operations targeting Kyiv and Chernihiv. While some Kremlin sources suggest the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort, other analysts question the likelihood of such an action. These moves come as Russia faces stagnating battlefield progress, rising military costs, and domestic unrest, yet Putin maintains he will defeat Ukraine this winter.

   Why it matters

   The conflict has entered its fifth year with Russian advances nearly stalled. This escalation represents a shift in strategy as traditional diplomatic channels fail to produce a resolution. The threat of nuclear weapons serves as a recurring tool for Russian leverage against NATO and Ukraine.

   What is confirmed

   • Russia is planning ground operations in northern Ukraine targeting Kyiv and Chernihiv.
   • Vladimir Putin is moving to escalate the war in Ukraine because diplomatic talks have reached a dead end.

   Still unconfirmed

   • The CIA has issued a warning regarding Putin's aims to escalate the war.

   What to watch next

   • Official Russian statements regarding the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
   Sources used for this update (18)

   1. Bloomberg — Putin Moves to Escalate War in Ukraine With Talks at Dead End
   2. Meduza — Kremlin sources tell Bloomberg that Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine. A growing number of Russian officials believe that could eventually mean a tactical nuclear weapon.
   3. Foreign Policy — Why Even a Cornered Putin Won’t Press the Red Button
   4. EUobserver — Alarming reports that Putin aims to escalate war, despite CIA warning (Ukraine Battlefield update, Day 1,645)
   5. Asia Times — Bear trap: Russia is running out of good options in Ukraine
   6. Kyiv Post — Opinion: Putin’s Default Mode: When in Doubt, Rattle the Nuclear Saber
   7. NDTV — Putin Could Deploy Tactical Nukes In Ukraine As 'Last Resort': Report
   8. The New York Times — Why Putin Is Fighting On, Even as His Problems Multiply
   9. The Kyiv Independent — Russia planning operation in northern Ukraine, including Kyiv, military says
   10. Bloomberg.com — Ukraine Says Russia Planning Ground Offensive on Kyiv, Chernihiv
   11. Military.com — Putin Moves to Escalate War in Ukraine as Talks at Dead End
   12. UNITED24 Media — Russia Plans Scenarios for Kyiv and Chernihiv Operations, Ukrainian Intelligence Says
   confidence 80%