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A Return to $3 Gasoline? Here’s What It Will Take

Average U.S. gas prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since March 30. Crude oil costs have returned to prewar levels, though gasoline prices remain higher. A base case forecast predicts prices could hit $3.40 by year-end if recovery continues.

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What changed

New forecasts provide specific price scenarios and detail the current state of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Live updates

  1. US Gas Prices Drop Below $4 Following US-Iran Deal

    Average U.S. gas prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since March 30. Crude oil costs have returned to prewar levels, though gasoline prices remain higher. A base case forecast predicts prices could hit $3.40 by year-end if recovery continues.

    What's confirmed:

    • Average U.S. gas prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since March 30.
    • Crude oil prices have returned to levels seen before the war.
    • A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • California gas prices are at $5.74 while Oklahoma-area prices are around $3.34.
    confidence 80%

  2. U.S. Gasoline Prices Drop Below $4 Following Iran Agreement

    Average U.S. gas prices have fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since March 30. This decline follows a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Prices remain 30% higher than levels seen before the February 28 attacks on Iran.

    What's confirmed:

    • The average U.S. gas price is now less than $4 per gallon.
    • The U.S. and Iran signed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Gas prices are 30% higher than they were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Brent crude futures fell 0.1% to $77.18 a barrel on Thursday.
    • Brent crude traded as low as $75 earlier in the day.
    confidence 95%

  3. US-Iran Deal Lowers Oil Prices, But Gas Recovery Remains Slow

    A framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude oil prices to sink. However, experts warn that gas prices may take months or years to return to $3 a gallon. Factors such as low inventories and tanker delays continue to keep costs elevated.

    What's confirmed:

    • President Trump announced an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Crude oil prices sank to their lowest levels in months following the announcement.
    • Traffic has begun flowing through the Strait of Hormuz as the deal takes effect.
    • Experts state that high prices for gas, groceries, and flights will outlast the Iran war.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Gas prices may not return to pre-war levels for months due to reserve restocking and tanker delays.
    • Oil prices are rising due to fighting in Lebanon and slow traffic in Hormuz.
    • Uncertainty is mounting over the U.S.-Iran truce.
    confidence 80%